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6 to 7.5 Million U.S. Retail Jobs at Risk Due to Automation

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7.5 million US retail jobs are at risk to go out of existence due to automation, out of which 73% positions are held by women. 

A new analysis finds that six to 7.5 million retail jobs likely will be automated out of existence in the coming years, leaving a large portion of the retail workforce at risk of becoming “stranded workers.” Retail cashiers are at highest risk for automation technologies, and women hold 73 percent of these positions.

Some 16 million Americans are employed in retail, which represents 10 percent of the nation’s working population and generates six percent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). A lack of disclosure on key labor metrics by retailers puts investors in the dark on how these companies are responding and what the fate of their workers could be.

These findings are contained in a new study, Retail Automation: Stranded Workers? Opportunities and Risks for Labor and Automation, conducted by Cornerstone Capital Group (Cornerstone) and commissioned by the Investor Responsibility Research Center Institute (IRRCi ). The report identifies the structural factors catalyzing change in the retail industry and is authored by Sebastian Vanderzeil and Michael Shavel of Cornerstone.

Download the report here.

A webinar is scheduled for Thursday, June 8, 2017 at 1 PM ET to review the findings and respond to questions. Register at no charge here.

“This in-depth examination of retail automation gives investors insights as they consider investment risks and opportunities,” said Jon Lukomnik, IRRCi executive director. “While the findings are important to investors, they should sound the alarm for economists and political leaders. The shrinking of retail jobs in many ways threatens to mirror the decline in manufacturing in the U.S. Moreover, in this case, workers at risk are already disproportionately working poor, so any disruption may cause strains in the social safety net and stresses on local tax revenues.”

“The retail landscape is changing rapidly and investors need to understand the social and governance issues impacting valuations for public companies in this sector,” said Erika Karp, Cornerstone founder and chief executive officer. “Retailers are facing a perfect storm: they need to balance demand for wage increases with the negative optics of future job losses. The winners in retail will be companies that provide recruitment, retention and training for workers and innovate with forward-thinking future store strategies.”

Among the report’s findings:

  • Some 36 percent of retail workers currently receive some form of public assistance and the average retail worker is age 38. Contrary to perceptions, 71 percent of retail workers are full-time employees.
  • Of the 30 companies analyzed in this report, most are considering the use of in-store technology such as mobile devices, self-checkout, digital kiosks and proximity beacons. In addition, sensor-based checkouts and smart shelves are a growing technology, as found in Amazon Go stores.
  • The report indicates that WalMart and other large retailers have greater market share in communities with less than 500,000 people. If employment trends correlate to market share location, retail automation by retailers could disproportionately impact these smaller communities.

The report details the technologies retailers are deploying, looks at the drivers of automation, and provides a framework to analyze the automation strategies of 30 large retail companies. In some cases, technology is complementing labor by freeing workers from mundane tasks and facilitating a more personalized customer experience. In others, technology has the potential to automate a significant part of the sales process and render a range of jobs redundant. Taken together, store closures and technology have the potential to dramatically alter the employment landscape in America.