Between €750-800bn in assets will move from London to Frankfurt as a result of a Brexit-led exodus of banks from the UK.
The claim has been made by the banking lobby group Frankfurt Main Exchange. According to its managing director Hubertus Vath, an estimated 30 lenders will shift their operations to Germany in the first quarter of 2019 having applied to the European Central Bank for a new licence and selected Frankfurt as their new location.
A further six banks have also applied for new licences and chosen other locations within Europe but are still expected to move some activity to Frankfurt.
Should the forecast come true, it would raise the total in banking assets for lending by more than a fifthe.
Roughly a third of the €800bn in assets will come as a result of Deutsche Bank, Germany’s largest lender, moving some of its investment banking activity to Germany.
Lloyds, Standard Chartered, Credit Suisse, Citigroup and Nomura are among the other major banks planning to expand or set up new offices in Frankfurt due to Brexit.
Vath is also expecting the amount of relocated lending business in Frankfurt to grow over time.“It is clear that considerable second-round effects will follow,” he said.
As bullish as the Frankfurt-based lobby group is about the relocation of banking assets, it has revised its earlier forecasts about jobs. While it still expects to gain 10,000 jobs after Brexit, this number will come in eight years rather than five.